A new opinion poll has found 57% of people saying they would vote for Scotland to remain in the United Kingdom. The New Statesman's Scottish election forecast model. Professor John Curticestated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population. May 2021. Savanta ComRes carried out a poll for a hypothetical Scottish independence referendum from April 16 to April 20. Explore the latest YouGov polling, survey results and articles about Scottish independence. Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the latest figures once again showed how evenly split Scotland is in regard to independence. Ms Sturgeon was cleared of breaking rules over her handling of the allegations but was heavily criticised by some members of the Scottish Parliament. Over the past month, an average of the polls … Keep an eye out for further additions to our Scottish independence poll tracker. But similar to independence, the support for the SNP has decreased in the polls in recent months. SUPPORT for Scottish independence has dropped to just 42 per cent, according to a new poll. The Telegraph values your comments but kindly requests all posts are on topic, constructive and respectful. The most recent ten polls conducted widen that gap to 47 per cent opposed and 44 per cent in favour. Support of Scottish independence is at its lowest level since just before the 2019 General Election, a new opinion poll has revealed. The model employs the latest voting intention surveys and adjusts for historical pollster error. Opinion polls conducted since the start of April show dwindling support for Scottish independence, Telegraph analysis shows. We rely on advertising to help fund our award-winning journalism. SCOTTISH independence appears to have taken a hit as a snapshot poll suggests a no vote lead following the Alex Salmond inquiry. Support for Scottish independence has fallen, according to a new poll which also shows a rise in the number of Scots who believe the SNP is “divided”. Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years - Sky News poll. Members of the Scottish Parliament can be elected as either constituency or regional (“list”) representatives. Support for remaining part of the UK is … [See also: Why civil war is breaking out in the SNP]. … NICOLA Sturgeon's independence dream has been dealt a hammer blow by a new poll indicating barely four in ten voters now back a Scotland breakaway. THE latest poll on Scottish independence found a seven-point lead for people wanting to leave the Union. All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman. It then calculates the most probable outcome in each constituency through a mode of regional swing. The fall in the polls could hamper hopes of claiming a majority in the elections which would have been used as justification for seeking a second referendum vote. Poll tracker methodology was revised Aug 25 . 7th April: SNP retains strong lead as independence dominates voters’ concerns; 25 February: Support for Scottish independence falls back; 2 December: SNP dominates Scotland’s political landscape ahead of May elections; 14th October: Record public support for Scottish independence; Event. Over the past month, an average of the polls show that 46 per cent of Scots are against independence whilst 45 per cent are in favour. In October last year, their polling numbers averaged at around 54 per cent. Latest Scottish independence support polling … The future of Scotland’s place in the UK is still dividing voters down the middle, a new poll on Scottish independence shows. Poll tracker of the latest polls on Scottish independence, weighted average. Since early-2020, support for Scottish independence had overtaken opposition, with the Yes vote securing a 8 per lead in average polling numbers in October last year. Support for Scottish independence has dropped to 50% for the first time since June last year, a new poll has found. But growth in support for the Scottish … In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 EU referendum, support for independence eclipsed opposition but only for a few weeks. Read more: 'Nicola Sturgeon to plan for Scottish independence on day one if elected'. The Panelbase poll published on Tuesday found support for a ‘Scexit’ running at 46 per cent — just one point higher than the Yes vote in the 2014 independence … During the last election in 2016, the SNP fells two seats short of an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. Find out more, Polls show support for Scottish independence at an all time high, Romford murder: Mother-of-two, 45, found dead in bushes by dog walker, Local election results 2021: how your council voted and how the numbers map across England, London mayoral election results 2021: the charts and maps that show how the capital voted, New Providence Wharf fire: Blaze at tower blocked wrapped in 'Grenfell-type cladding' tackled by more than 100 firefighters, Support for Scottish independence has decreased in recent polls (May 2021), 'Nicola Sturgeon to plan for Scottish independence on day one if elected', SNP are leading the polls for Scottish Parliament elections, What rules to expect at polling stations during the coronavirus pandemic. Opinion polls show a sustained decrease in support for Scottish independence but SNP are still the favoured party in the 2021 election By Ben Butcher 6 May 2021 • 1:43pm Polls … POTENTIAL SCOTLAND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM POLL OF POLLS. Scottish nationalists are on course to win a record majority in elections for Scotland's devolved parliament that would start a new push for independence, an opinion poll published on Thursday showed. A mammoth set of races will test Scottish independence, Tory and Labour strategy, and lots more besides. The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined. Opinion polls conducted since the start of April show dwindling support for Scottish independence, Telegraph analysis shows. The survey also suggests the Scottish Greens will return 11 MSPs, with the SNP, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour all losing seats. Latest polls The Sunday Times poll by Panelbase, 28 April 2021 - 30 April 2021 Sunday Herald poll by BMG Research, 27 April 2021 - 30 April 2021 Self-Funded or Unknown poll by ComRes, 23 April 2021 - 28 April 2021 Scotsman poll by ComRes, 23 April 2021 - 27 April 2021 Scot Goes Pop poll by Panelbase, 21 April 2021 - 26 April 2021 . There is “widespread misunderstanding” of economic facts among Scottish voters, as well as confusion over the SNP’s plans for independence, according to a pro-Union think tank opinion poll. But in recent months, the success of the UK-government's vaccination rollout and splits within the Scottish nationalist movement appear to have dampened support for independence. More bad news has come for Scottish National Party (SNP) as the latest poll says a majority oppose independence from the UK. The latest voting intentions on the question of Scottish independence – share of those declaring for undecided are included. About YouGov At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The Believe in Scotland survey, carried out by Panelbase, found 51% of Scots back independence, while 49% are opposed once undecided respondents were excluded. Recent polls give the SNP leads in both the constituency and list sections, but the, Jhumpa Lahiri: "Who isn't on the outside? GLASGOW — Despite being on course to win next week’s Scottish parliament election, pro-independence parties face a perilous path to secure a new referendum on breaking away from the U.K. Scottish Labour is projected to win 24 seats, the same number the party won in the last Holyrood election, with the Scottish Tories coming third with … Excluding those who say they don’t know or wouldn’t vote, this amounts to a lead of 52% to 48% for an independent Scotland. Most Recent Holyrood Projection. Voting intention for the Scottish parliamentary election – both constituency (first-past-the-post) and list/regional (additional member system). ITV’s Tonight programme commissioned Savanta ComRes to carry out the survey on attitudes to the Union in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Since then, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been engaged in a bitter conflict with former SNP leader Alex Salmond over sexual harassment claims against the latter. Before the resurgence last year, polls has shown clear opposition to independence, even after the EU referendum which saw England and Wales vote in favour of Brexit, whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain. For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. The SNP, which has governed Scotland since 2007, is standing on the promise of a second referendum on independence following the UK's exit from the European Union and a surge in Yes support. POLLING guru John Curtice has warned Nicola Sturgeon support for both the SNP and independence is falling ahead of the crucial Scottish Parliament election next Thursday. A new poll carried out for The Sunday Times shows that pro-independence parties could win 79 of 129 seats at Holyrood. A poll has found three separatist parties would together win 79 out of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats, with the Alba Party getting six. Others in the nationalist camp are also demanding urgency. Labour have benefited most from this slump in the polls, having increased their polling numbers by 5 per cent over the period. Get the New Statesman’s Morning Call email. The prime minister’s Conservative Party stands to gain at the polls on Thursday, despite ethical accusations against him. Please review our, You need to be a subscriber to join the conversation. The majority of people in Scotland no longer want to break away from the UK, a bombshell survey has found. The latest 10-poll average puts the party on 49.4%, well ahead of the second-placed Tories on 21.7%. . Though that doesn’t mean it’s infallible, it should prove an effective barometer of what Scottish public opinion will look like in May. Scottish independence: 53% of voters back leaving UK if EU membership guaranteed, poll suggests. Ben Walker is a data journalist at the New Statesman. Twenty-two consecutive polls have shown support for Scottish independence, and today a new poll once again confirms that Scottish independence is now seen as a necessity, rather than a wish, by most Scots. Meanwhile, the poll puts support for independence at 52% - still somewhat lower than in some polls last year, but no lower than the average of the polls in January. The polling in Scotland is looking promising for Sturgeon, with a healthy lead for the SNP. On 6 May, voters in Scotland will head to the polls and elect their new parliament at Holyrood. Scottish voters will also vote for regional members of the Scottish Parliament with polls similarly showing a significant gap between the SNP and the second-place Conservatives. Each elector may cast two votes: one for their constituency, a second for their region. Our election model is updated as soon as new data becomes available. On 6 May, voters in Scotland will head to the polls and elect their new parliament at Holyrood. The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times suggests that pro-independence parties could win 79 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats come the 6 May vote. HAVE YOUR SAY The latest polling from Survation shows 44 per cent of Scots would support staying in the UK if a referendum were held tomorrow, with 43 … Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign. A minority, 43%, backed leaving the … This shift in favour of Scottish independence is now the most prolonged in polling history. Recent polls give the SNP leads in both the constituency and list sections, but the New Statesman's forecast model does not suggest the party is guaranteed an overall majority (65 seats or more). The latest YouGov survey has also found support for independence slipping – down two points at 47 per cent since the company’s last poll.
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